Yet another exit poll has predicted that the DMK-led alliance will get a majority in Tamil Nadu for a second straight term, cushioning the blow from Axis My India, which said it could be a very close fight with actor-politician Vijay’s TVK.
In data released on Thursday evening, Today’s Chanakya has predicted that the DMK-led coalition, which also includes the Congress, will win 125 seats, with an error margin of 11, in the 234-member Assembly. The number needed for a majority is 118.
What will be a surprise for the AIADMK, which has tied up with the BJP once again, is that the pollster has predicted it will emerge victorious in 45 (plus/minus 11) seats, fewer even than the TVK, which is making its electoral debut this time. Today’s Chanakya has said the Vjay-led party could win 63 seats with the same error margin.
In terms of vote share, the agency has projected 27% for the AIADMK-led alliance, 39% for DMK + and 30% for the TVK. All of these numbers have an error margin of 3%. Live updates
Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong.
While most polls have predicted that the MK Stalin-led DMK is returning for a second term, Axis My India had said on Wednesday that the coalition the party leads could win between 92 and 110 seats while the TVK could get between 98 and 120.
Among other pollsters, Peoples Pulse has predicted the DMK and allies would win 125-145 seats, while the AIADMK and allies would get 65-80.
Peoples Insight gave the DMK+ 120-140 constituencies, and the AIADMK+ 60-70.
Praja Poll has said the DMK and partners would get 148-168 seats while the AIADMK and allies could get 61-81. TVK is forecast to win 1 to 9 seats.
P-Marq has given DMK+ 125-145 seats, AIADMK+ 65-85 seats, and TVK 16-26.
Matrize has predicted 122-132 constituencies for DMK+, 87-100 for AIADMK+ and 10-12 for TVK.
Kamakhya Analytics differed from this trend, giving the DMK and allies 78-95 seats, AIADMK and allies 68-84, and TVK 67-81. This result would ensure the TVK would play a big role in any government that gets formed.
And going in the other direction was JVC, which predicted 75-95 seats for DMK and allies, 128-147 seats for AIADMK+, and 8-15 for TVK.
Tamil Nadu saw a voter turnout of over 82% and counting will take place on Monday.