The Kerala election result was announced 10 days ago but the Congress-led United Democratic Front – which swept 102 of the state’s 140 seats – has yet to announce its new chief minister. A meeting of the alliance head’s MLA-elects is scheduled for 1pm this afternoon at it state headquarters, at which the name of its new legislature party leader will be announced.
The legislature party leader will, most likely, also be named as the chief minister.
The shortlist has come down to two – General Secretary KC Venugopal and the outgoing Leader of the Opposition, VD Satheesan – while senior leader Ramesh Chennithala is a dark horse.
On Tuesday sources told NDTV Venugopal is the much-preferred option; 47 of the party’s 63 MLA-elects are seen as backing him while only five want Satheesan. And on paper he is the obvious choice; he has greater administrative experience.
Yes, the 63-year-old is a Lok Sabha MP, which means he needs to resign and win an Assembly by-poll within six months of being sworn-in, but, that technicality aside, overwhelming support for Venugopal should have made this an easy choice.
KC Venugopal is the Congress’ pick to be Kerala chief minister Photo: ANI
However, the Indian Union Muslim League is backing Satheesan – seen as having the led the charge that defeated the Communist Party (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front and as the people’s choice for the post – and this complicates the issue because the IUML is the second-largest member of the UDF. The Congress has 63 seats and the IUML 22.
Should an IUML irked by the choice walk out, it will leave the Congress in a delicate position – only nine above the majority mark of 71, with four of those held by independent lawmakers.
The bigger problem for the party is that giving in to the IUML will invite ‘appeasement’ barbs from the Bharatiya Janata Party and possibly lead to discord between Venugopal and Satheesan.
Satheesan is seen as the people’s pick to be chief minister (File)
Such a situation would mirror that in Karnataka, where the Congress has had to balance a (public) civil war between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy, DK Shivakumar, that erupts at intervals and threatens to take down its government.
This danger has been flagged by party sources who say Satheesan would likely refuse to be part of administration led by Venugopal. And it was underlined this week by posters in Wayanad – the Lok Sabha seat held by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.
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These posters warn the Gandhis against picking Venugopal over Satheesan; “Wayanad can be the next Amethi,” one screamed, referring to the family losing its Uttar Pradesh bastion to the BJP’s Smriti Irani in the 2019 Lok Sabha election.
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Given Wayanad has a large Muslim electorate – around 45 per cent – angering the IUML is a risk.
The Congress’ central leadership’s choice is clear – Venugopal. But Satheesan and his camp, and even Chennithala and his supporters, appear determined to make a contest out of this.Chennithala could be satisfied with being appointed the Speaker. But Satheesan, it seems, wants the top job and nothing else.