The ruling DMK alliance is projected to win the upcoming Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, according to two pre-poll surveys released ahead of April 23 elections.
A survey by agency Lok Poll projected that Chief Minister MK Stalin-led alliance will secure 181-189 seats of the 234 constituencies with a 40.1 per cent vote share.
The opposition AIADMK-led NDA is projected to win between 38 and 42 seats, with 29% of the vote share, according to the survey which was conducted between March 1 and April 1.
The most wanted #TamilNadu Survey is Out!
Here’s the vote share & seat projection from our mega ground survey:
▪️DMK+ 181–189 | 40.1%
▪️ADMK+ 38–42 | 29%
▪️TVK 8–10 | 23.9%
▪️NTK 00 | 4.9%
▪️Others 00 | 2.1%Sample size:… pic.twitter.com/5CuGQMwKpP
— Lok Poll (@LokPoll) April 1, 2026
Actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which is making its political debut, will secure 8-10 seats with a 23.9% vote share. NTK and other parties are unlikely to make a significant impact, with projected vote shares of 4.9% and 2.1%, respectively.
According to the findings, Stalin was the most preferred chief ministerial face, followed by Vijay and AIADMK’s Edappadi K Palaniswami.
“The DMK alliance is clearly ahead, mainly because of its strong welfare schemes like Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thogai, free bus travel, and the breakfast scheme. These have especially connected well with women in rural and semi-urban areas, giving DMK a solid advantage,” the Lok Poll survey said.
It said the “biggest advantage” for the DMK is that the opposition vote is split between the NDA and the TVK.
Vijay’s party is attracting a “good share” of votes “especially from young voters, first-time voters, and those unhappy with the government”, the survey, which included 1,17,000 respondents, said.
This support, however, may not convert into many seats, as they are contesting alone, it added.
Detailed analysis of each zone in #Tamilnadu that will explain you the seat share numbers better.
We have divided it into 4 zones for your understanding. #Election2026#tnelection https://t.co/mIMc14Tf0o pic.twitter.com/DgrNSKCQ5B
— Lok Poll (@LokPoll) April 1, 2026
“Edappadi K Palaniswami-led AIADMK is struggling internally. Party splits, loss of key leaders, and weak cadre morale are affecting its performance, especially in Delta and southern districts,” the survey said.
A survey by Poll Tracker also projected that the DMK-led alliance will retain power with a sweeping majority.
It forecasted that the ruling alliance may secure between 172 and 178 seats and is expected to garner 42.7 per cent of the total votes.
The AIADMK is projected to lag significantly with 46 to 52 seats.
Key Insights & Analysis: pic.twitter.com/iJecQzpeKR
— Poll Tracker (@PollTracker) April 2, 2026
The TVK is projected to get a 19.2 per cent vote share, translating to 6 to 12 seats. The NTK is expected to secure between 0 and 2 seats with 5.1 per cent of the vote share.
The poll analysis indicated that the alliance between the AIADMK and the BJP has contributed to a consolidation of minority votes against the AIADMK-led front.
It also noted that multiple communities, including the Mudaliar, Naidu, and Muslim communities, are broadly inclined toward the DMK alliance.
“In terms of public perception, MK Stalin tends to be seen by a section of voters as a more familiar and established leader compared to Edappadi K Palaniswami and Vijay,” the Poll Tracker survey said.