Less than 15 years into its existence, the Aam Aadmi Party is facing its biggest setback. Raghav Chadha and six others from the party – two-thirds of its 10 Rajya Sabha MPs – have announced that they will merge with the BJP.
Following this split, the party’s total strength in Parliament, including three in the Lok Sabha, has dropped from 13 to just six MPs.
Sources within the party say that while there had been internal discussions regarding Raghav Chadha, there was no indication that so many MPs would leave at once.
“Out of the seven MPs, four were businessmen and other public figures and only three, including Raghav Chadha, were core political leaders associated with the party. Of them, Swati Maliwal had been openly critical of the party for quite some time, and Sandeep Pathak’s influence had been declining since the Lok Sabha elections. Pathak was responsible for organisational matters, but his active role had reduced,” said a source.
“As for the other four MPs, including former cricketer Harbhajan Singh, questions had been raised about their long-term commitment to the party ever since they were nominated, so their quitting has a lesser impact,” the source added.
The AAP has said it will seek the disqualification of the seven MPs and take the legal route if there is a delay. Sources indicated, however, that the Rajya Sabha chairman is likely to accept the merger request, in which case the party’s only option would be to pursue legal action.
The challenge for the AAP is not limited to Punjab but also involves keeping its MLAs united in Delhi, Gujarat, and Goa. In Delhi, MLA Aaley Iqbal has already shown signs of dissent. During a recent Assembly session, while the party boycotted proceedings, he attended and even spoke.
In Gujarat, the BJP has already managed to break AAP’s ranks once. Although the party won a by-election later, several of its candidates withdrew during the municipal elections. After Delhi and Punjab, the AAP is now looking at Gujarat as its next growth frontier, as is evidenced by Arvind Kejriwal’s frequent visits to the state.
Punjab Is Key
The AAP’s future largely hinges on next year’s Punjab elections. If the party manages to retain power in the state, it could regain momentum and boost worker morale.
Punjab Minister Balbir Singh said the defectors, six of whom are MPs from the state, have betrayed the people and alleged that the BJP orchestrated this to disrupt the state government’s work. He also asserted that all AAP MLAs in Punjab remain united and that the Bhagwant Mann government is functioning effectively.
A party leader, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that while the defections may hurt the AAP, their timing – nine months before the Punjab elections – may not be too bad. “If they had left in November or December, during peak campaign season, it could have caused more damage. People could have questioned why we sent such individuals to the Rajya Sabha,” the leader said.
According to him, the party now has time to reach out to the public and explain its position. “We will tell people how the BJP has betrayed Punjab by taking away our MPs. We still have time to connect with voters and present our side,” he added.
Singh also downplayed the impact of the departing MPs, saying they do not have a strong presence on the ground. “They cannot win elections on their own, so their exit will not have any significant impact, especially in Punjab,” he said.
Asked why the MPs left, Singh pointed to pressure from investigative agencies.
Despite these assertions, concerns remain. Raghav Chadha’s claim that he is in touch with 50 MLAs has raised alarms within the party. Both Chadha and Sandeep Pathak were key figures in distributing tickets during the Punjab Assembly elections, giving them strong connections with many legislators.
Additionally, sources within the AAP suggest there is growing anti-incumbency against several Punjab MLAs, and the party may drop a number of them in the next election. Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has sought time to meet the President, labelled the defecting MPs ‘traitors’, and challenged the BJP to poach AAP MLAs.