Will Bengal opt for a change this time or stick with Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee? Amid the huge commotion over voter roll deletions and the surrounding noise over infiltration, corruption and unemployment, this would be the big question that that will be answered today as the counting of votes begin at 8 am.
The BJP’s battle for Bengal, which had a quiet beginning in 2016, has accelerated over the years. From 3 seats and 10 per cent vote share in 2016, the party managed 77 seats and 38 per cent vote share by 2021 – a huge leap.
The Trinamool, though, bettered its 2016 results as well, winning 215 seats with a 48 per cent vote share.
This time, the BJP is hoping for a majority – the party’s chief strategist Amit Shah had said the party will win 110 seats in the first phase alone and form government in the state. The majority mark in the 294-member Bengal assembly is 148. But with repolling ordered in Falta, results for only 293 seats will be out.
South Bengal, though, with its 142 seats, is the bastion of the Trinamool Congress, which has lost ground to the BJP in north Bengal.
Following the elections, Banerjee sounded confident. As Bengal registered a 92-plus per cent turnout in the two phases of election, the Chief Minister said, “We will cross 226 seats in 2026. We might even cross 230 seats. I have complete faith in the massive mandate given by the people”.
What the exit polls have predicted is part of a “larger conspiracy” to influence perception before the election results are announced, she added.
So far, five exit polls have predicted a BJP victory – which would require at least a 5.3 per cent swing.
The voter list revisions, though, have pared down the electoral rolls by 91 lakh – more than 11.6 per cent of the electorate – and in multiple areas where the Trinamool’s winning margin is slim.
After three straight terms since 2011, when she toppled the 35-year CPM regime, many say this could be the toughest election Mamata Banerjee is facing.
But that same tag had been applied in 2021 as well.
Banerjee had aced that contest, its enduring image remained that of a lone, silent woman in a wheelchair picking up a paintbrush in a corner of Kolkata.
But the BJP – known for its vast election machinery, has not been idle.
Over the years, it has been whittling away at Trinamool’s shiny credentials change from the 34-year Left rule, relentlessly flagging corruption, law and order issues and the lack of development that has mired Bengal for over five decades and — critics say — turned Trinamool into Left Front 2.0.
Learning its lesson from 2021, this time it has neither advanced turncoats nor attacked the Chief Minister personally, but quietly fielded sons of the soil and hammered on its promises of development, jobs, infrastructure and corruption-free governance.
The Trinamool has projected the contest as one of self-determination against outsiders — from food to culture — and of survival against a Centre that refuses to release state funds.