The 2026 Assam Assembly elections show a clear political shift in the state. The Congress has managed to win mostly in the Muslim-dominated constituencies, while the BJP-led alliance swept the seats with consolidated Hindu votes, including tribals and tea-garden workers who historically voted for the Congress.
Political observers believe the biggest reason behind this trend was the collapse of the All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), the party that gave political space to the Bengali-speaking Muslims in Assam, often referred to as ‘Miyas’ and who make up 35 percent of Assam’s total population.
For years, minority votes, especially in Lower Assam and Barak Valley, were divided between Congress and AIUDF. This division often helped the BJP in several seats, and even ally AGP.
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This time, with the AIUDF losing organisational strength and public confidence, a large section of Muslim voters shifted to the Congress.
The election also witnessed strong strategic voting among Muslim communities.
Many voters appeared to believe that only Congress was in a position to challenge the BJP, leading to consolidation even in seats where Congress candidates were not considered particularly strong.
At the same time, the BJP under Himanta Biswa Sarma managed to consolidate Hindu votes across caste and regional lines. In Upper Assam, North Bank, and several parts of central Assam, the BJP succeeded in turning the election into a direct ideological contest, leaving little room for the Congress outside the ‘Miya’ Muslim-dominated areas.
Another major factor was the impact of eviction drives carried out in districts such as Darrang and Nagaon.
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While many Muslim voters viewed these drives with fear and insecurity, a large section of the majority community voters, especially the indigenous Assamese Bhumiputras, saw these as strong administrative action and land protection measures.
This created parallel consolidation on both sides: Muslims, mostly the Bengali-speaking Muslims of lower Assam, moving towards the Congress and the majority community voters rallying behind the BJP.
The perception surrounding AIUDF also played a crucial role. Many voters increasingly viewed the party as indirectly helping the BJP by splitting anti-BJP votes. Its earlier support to the BJP during the Rajya Sabha voting strengthened that narrative further. As a result, several minority voters abandoned the AIUDF and backed Congress instead.
The 2023 delimitation exercise also changed Assam’s political equations significantly. Constituency boundaries were redrawn in a way that reduced mixed-population swing seats and created more demographically polarised constituencies.
Earlier, the Congress could win seats by combining minority support with a section of Hindu votes. But after delimitation, many seats became either clearly majority-dominated or Muslim-dominated.
Earlier, Muslims used to be the decisive factor in about 35 seats, but after delimitation, the Muslim dominance got reduced to around 22 seats only. The final outcome reflected this change of political reality in Assam.
This left the Congress competitive mainly in the Muslim-dominated constituencies, while the BJP established dominance across most of the majority-centric regions of the state.
The 2026 verdict has therefore highlighted a deeper transformation in Assam politics, where broad-based coalition politics is gradually giving way to sharper community-based electoral consolidation.