Is World Cup Rigged? What VAR Data Actually Says About Messi’s Argentina

Is the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) a boon or a bane for the football community? The jury is still out on a final verdict. However, there is some sort of consensus that certain teams do get those 50-50 decisions in their favour more than others. As the FIFA World Cup 2026 enters its final two rounds with the four semi-finalists decided, there has been plenty of chatter around specific VAR decisions-particularly those in matches involving Lionel Messi‘s Argentina. When Argentina eliminated Egypt in the Round of 16, both the opposing team’s coach and players publicly spoke of the tournament being “rigged” to favour the defending champions. Similarly, the sending-off of Switzerland’s Breel Embolo in the quarter-final match triggered a storm, with many suggesting that VAR intervention in the matter was completely unnecessary.

As suggestions of Argentina being “favoured” by VAR continue to gain steam on social media, many fans feel that Messi’s team is the “most protected” in the tournament when it comes to refereeing decisions. However, the hard data paints a slightly different and more nuanced picture.

When VAR decision data was compiled by Northeastern Global News, it was found that Argentina is placed second in the list of teams that have benefited the most from the technology this World Cup (up to the completion of the Round of 16).

In fact, not a single VAR intervention took place against Argentina up to the Round of 16 stage of the World Cup. It is a similar case for co-hosts Mexico, who have benefited the most from VAR in this World Cup, according to the compiled data. 

VAR Intervention Rate per 100 Fouls (World Cup 2026: Group Stage through Round of 16):

The Top Five Beneficiaries:

1. Mexico: In team’s favour: 7.8 | Against team: 0.0
2. Argentina: In team’s favour: 6.7 | Against team: 0.0
3. Portugal: In team’s favour: 4.6 | Against team: 0.0
4. New Zealand: In team’s favour: 4.2 | Against team: 0.0
5. Saudi Arabia: In team’s favour: 3.6 | Against team: 0.0

When it comes to the teams that have faced the brunt of VAR decisions going against them, the list is topped by Croatia. The 2018 World Cup finalists, in fact, did not have a single VAR decision go in their favour during the tournament.

The Five Most Negatively Impacted:

1. Croatia: In team’s favour: 0.0 | Against team: 6.5
2. Iran: In team’s favour: 0.0 | Against team: 5.4
3. Qatar: In team’s favour: 0.0 | Against team: 5.1
4. Germany: In team’s favour: 0.0 | Against team: 4.0
5. England: In team’s favour: 0.0 | Against team: 3.5

Courtesy: Northeastern Global News

How the Other Teams Ranked:

1. Austria: In team’s favour: 3.6 | Against team: 3.6
2. Uzbekistan: In team’s favour: 3.3 | Against team: 2.0
3. Jordan: In team’s favour: 4.3 | Against team: 5.9
4. Belgium: In team’s favour: 3.2 | Against team: 1.5
5. USA: In team’s favour: 2.7 | Against team: 1.7
6. Bosnia and Herzegovina: In team’s favour: 2.6 | Against team: 0.0
7. Canada: In team’s favour: 2.5 | Against team: 1.4
8. Ecuador: In team’s favour: 2.5 | Against team: 1.9
9. Turkiye: In team’s favour: 2.4 | Against team: 0.0
10. Scotland: In team’s favour: 2.3 | Against team: 0.0
11. Ghana: In team’s favour: 2.2 | Against team: 0.0
12. South Africa: In team’s favour: 2.1 | Against team: 2.6
13. Senegal: In team’s favour: 2.0 | Against team: 2.6
14. Sweden: In team’s favour: 1.9 | Against team: 0.0
15. Brazil: In team’s favour: 1.7 | Against team: 1.8
16. Paraguay: In team’s favour: 1.7 | Against team: 4.0
17. France: In team’s favour: 1.6 | Against team: 0.0
18. Egypt: In team’s favour: 1.4 | Against team: 1.6
19. Spain: In team’s favour: 0.0 | Against team: 1.7
20. Norway: In team’s favour: 0.0 | Against team: 2.0
21. DR Congo: In team’s favour: 0.0 | Against team: 2.0
22. Australia: In team’s favour: 0.0 | Against team: 2.1
23. Algeria: In team’s favour: 0.0 | Against team: 3.3
24. Iraq: In team’s favour: 0.0 | Against team: 3.3
25. Tunisia: In team’s favour: 0.0 | Against team: 3.3

Is VAR Favouring Argentina?

While FIFA, football’s global governing body, maintains that decisions taken on the field are unbiased, the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) has come under the spotlight multiple times during Argentina’s matches in this tournament.

Arguably, the biggest row erupted during the Egypt vs Argentina match in the Round of 16 in Atlanta. Egypt felt hard done by after their brilliantly crafted second-half goal was chalked off following a VAR intervention for a foul in the build-up.

The African team went on to let their 2-0 advantage slip after the 78th minute and lost the game 2-3. The Egypt camp argued that the referee and the VAR team were biased, alleging that several fouls committed by Argentina players were not forensically examined in the same way.

Even against Algeria, many feel that Lionel Messi should have been sent off for a studs-up challenge on his opponent. However, the referee did not even issue a yellow card to the Argentina captain.

The “mistaken identity” rule that prompted the referee to issue a yellow card to Switzerland’s Breel Embolo after a VAR intervention is the latest controversy to be added to the long list of contentious calls that have gone in Argentina’s favour during this World Cup.